Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:11:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
78 0x7879…dd74 crypto 1448 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (133 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate87%1325W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day132.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$337
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (133 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 684 -11.6% -20.0% 76% 28% -33.1%
≤30d 1525 -5.5% -14.5% 87% 15% -18.7%
≤90d 1525 -5.5% -14.5% 87% 15% -18.7%
all 1525 -5.5% -14.5% 87% 15% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover132.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 15% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 10% -26.5%
15% -30.1% 6% -33.6%
20% -37.0% 3% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$28 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1325 / 200
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1525 / 1448
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day132.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1525 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 201 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $146 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $38 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $27 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $14 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $64 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $14 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $66 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $57 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $65 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $56 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $63 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $63 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $63 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $62 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $54 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $61 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.61 · official $169.05 (match) · 3500 history records