Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:52:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7879…822a other 423 markets active 1h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,385 (-1%) realized −$2,198 · open −$187
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate37%146W / 249L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$596per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$15,882now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$140
7 days−$764
14 days−$3,847
30 days−$770
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$1,524
other 26% +$5,030
politics 26% −$342
tech 6% −$2,565
economics 3% −$371
culture 1% −$2,277
finance 1% +$445
sports 1% −$280
crypto 1% −$454
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +26.5% +14.5% 36% 26% -14.7%
≤30d 75 +15.7% +4.7% 41% 33% -10.8%
≤90d 118 +9.0% -1.3% 35% 26% -10.6%
all 395 -10.5% -19.0% 37% 25% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 25% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 17% -18.6%
15% -33.9% 10% -26.5%
20% -40.3% 7% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$211 vs −$133 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$15,882
Realized−$2,198
Unrealized−$187
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses146 / 249
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions28
Markets (closed)395 / 423
History coverage212d
Avg bet$596
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 395 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 73¢ 88¢ $6,974 $8,485 +$1,511 (+22%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $2,622 $2,682 +$60 (+2%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 61¢ 66¢ $1,905 $2,052 +$146 (+8%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 70¢ 98¢ $628 $876 +$248 (+40%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 96¢ 99¢ $299 $308 +$9 (+3%)
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 33¢ 15¢ $634 $291 −$343 (-54%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 20¢ $377 $245 −$131 (-35%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $220 $226 +$6 (+3%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% and 9%? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $221 $206 −$15 (-7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $142 $146 +$4 (+3%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% and 6%? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $127 $91 −$36 (-28%)
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $40 $61 +$21 (+52%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $61 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%? Yes 53¢ 2¢ $1,195 $52 −$1,143 (-96%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $49 $23 −$25 (-52%)
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 41¢ 3¢ $288 $18 −$270 (-94%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 10–15%? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $112 $17 −$94 (-84%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-19%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $27 $10 −$17 (-63%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+43%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-24%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $140 −$109 -78%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $149 −$98 -66%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3% Jun 17 $15 −$4 -26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$29 +57%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$36 +176%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $33 −$11 -32%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $87 −$21 -24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$36 +35%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026 Jun 16 $54 −$2 -5%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 16 $51 −$17 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $4,706 +$118 +2%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $300 +$16 +5%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$5 -26%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +84%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -61%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $972 −$76 -8%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 14 $42 +$6 +14%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $4,985 −$752 -15%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 14 $20 −$4 -18%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $15 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$38 +1843%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $97 +$37 +38%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 12 $7 $0 -7%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $138 +$37 +27%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $370 +$167 +45%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $913 −$151 -16%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 10 $18 +$89 +500%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $7,984 −$751 -9%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,548 +$274 +18%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $26 −$14 -56%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $1,078 −$94 -9%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $1,563 −$362 -23%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $99 −$49 -49%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $1,640 −$480 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $31 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% an BUY Yes 22¢ $4 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY Yes 53¢ $204 2h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election SELL No 98¢ $303 2h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 87¢ $90 9h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY No 96¢ $598 11h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 13h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 13h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 13h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 13h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% an BUY Yes 23¢ $1 16h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% an BUY Yes 23¢ $5 16h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% an BUY Yes 23¢ $5 16h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 59¢ $236 20h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% an BUY Yes 26¢ $5 22h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3% SELL Yes 9¢ $11 22h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 24h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 98¢ $56 24h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 24h
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 20¢ $40 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 35¢ $20 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 26h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 26h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $103 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,881.90 · official $15,881.97 (match) · 3337 history records