Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
78 0x787b…86c3 sports 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$141 (+16%) realized +$138 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day42.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +28.5% +16.2% 45% 45% +8.6%
≤30d 40 +28.5% +16.2% 45% 45% +8.6%
≤90d 40 +28.5% +16.2% 45% 45% +8.6%
all 40 +28.5% +16.2% 45% 45% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.2% 45% +8.6%
10% ← realistic here +5.1% 42% -1.8%
15% -5.1% 42% -11.3%
20% -14.4% 42% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +77% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$8 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized+$138
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage2d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day42.3
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs REKONIX 68¢ 72¢ $65 $69 +$3 (+5%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playoffs Power Rangers 70¢ 72¢ $62 $63 +$1 (+2%)
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage QT DIG∞ 50¢ 48¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-3%)
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Tabilo Fabian Marozsan 43¢ 42¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re Jun 23 $19 +$16 +86%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Alexei Popyrin Jun 22 $5 +$11 +216%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh Jun 22 $30 +$47 +160%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $7 +$9 +129%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle Jun 22 $12 +$16 +129%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Oliver Bonding Jun 22 $11 +$30 +280%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr Jun 22 $29 −$28 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Edas Butvilas vs Moez Echargui Jun 22 $8 +$18 +216%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin Jun 22 $21 +$29 +140%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $6 +$8 +152%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet Jun 22 $201 −$7 -3%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 22 $14 −$14 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Luka Pavlovic Jun 22 $5 +$13 +269%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 22 $10 +$17 +172%
Mallorca Championships: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 22 $83 −$2 -2%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $15 +$16 +108%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper Jun 22 $6 $0 -5%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Daniil Glinka vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 22 $11 −$10 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren Jun 22 $9 −$9 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Crawford vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Valentin Royer Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Ivan Ivanov Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Agustin Gomez vs Clement Tabur Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 21 $14 +$2 +13%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $9 +$16 +184%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Juan Carlos Prado vs Daniel Evans Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Napolitano vs Billy Harris Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jun 21 $4 +$9 +262%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $7 +$13 +191%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $29 +$38 +134%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $4 +$9 +206%
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qu Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $8 −$7 -99%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua Jun 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo Jun 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $11 −$11 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY Power Rangers 70¢ $62 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 69¢ $9 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 68¢ $57 2h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY QT DIG∞ 50¢ $8 3h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY QT DIG∞ 50¢ $30 3h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Fabian Marozsan 43¢ $8 4h
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re BUY Leviatán Academy 53¢ $19 5h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr BUY Beşiktaş Esports 52¢ $5 10h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Oliver Bonding BUY Federico Coria 25¢ $3 12h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr BUY Beşiktaş Esports 50¢ $23 12h
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Barça eSports 27¢ $4 12h
Mallorca Championships: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 51¢ $83 12h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Oliver Bonding BUY Federico Coria 26¢ $8 12h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Vilius Gaubas 38¢ $2 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Vilius Gaubas 38¢ $4 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Vilius Gaubas 38¢ $3 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Vilius Gaubas 39¢ $10 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Vilius Gaubas 38¢ $2 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Vilius Gaubas 38¢ $1 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Vilius Gaubas 38¢ $8 13h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet BUY Darwin Blanch 51¢ $201 15h
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Barça eSports 27¢ $2 15h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Daniil Glinka vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Daniil Glinka 55¢ $11 16h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Adam Walton 43¢ $7 16h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren BUY Liam Broady 46¢ $3 16h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Crawford vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Oliver Crawford 30¢ $5 16h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren BUY Liam Broady 45¢ $5 16h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 43¢ $6 17h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 43¢ $6 17h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Prestige 39¢ $6 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.83 · official $271.83 (match) · 97 history records