Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:17:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x787d…dec6 crypto 282 markets active 0h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$324 (-4%) realized −$324 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%116W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$476
sports 13% −$255
other 0% −$15
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -11.0% -19.5% 43% 35% -7.6%
≤30d 31 -18.0% -25.8% 39% 32% -17.9%
≤90d 278 -6.5% -15.4% 41% 35% -16.6%
all 284 -7.4% -16.2% 41% 35% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 35% -16.9%
10% -24.2% 28% -24.9%
15% -31.5% 19% -32.1%
20% -38.2% 14% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$324
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses116 / 168
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)284 / 282
History coverage186d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 284 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$8 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$22 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $34 +$12 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $63 −$32 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$20 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $34 +$20 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $34 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $13 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $17 −$7 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $72 −$22 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $82 −$50 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $120 +$59 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $38 +$29 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $55 −$11 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$19 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$6 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $34 −$19 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$16 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 08 $37 −$16 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 08 $24 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 29 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 29 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 29 $194 −$120 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 29 $91 +$30 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 27 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 27 $7 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 27 $102 −$42 -41%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $124 −$47 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 27 $51 +$27 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 27 $24 +$28 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 27 $31 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 27 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 27 $2 +$2 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 27 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 27 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 26 $52 −$19 -37%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Essex May 26 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 26 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 26 $53 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 26 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 26 $15 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 26 $31 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 26 $33 +$4 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $53 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $31 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $16 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $19 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $19 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $12 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $12 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $51 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $32 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $68 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $6 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $6 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $6 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $11 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 888 history records