Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:13:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x787d…aecd sports 568 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d only
✗ bot/MM pace (152 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,927 (-10%) realized −$1,935 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate63%355W / 206L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day151.6pace
Fees−$217est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$395
14 days−$296
30 days−$502
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$494
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (152 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 298 -2.4% -11.7% 63% 53% -14.6%
≤30d 561 +1.7% -8.0% 63% 53% -12.0%
≤90d 561 +1.7% -8.0% 63% 53% -12.0%
all 561 +1.7% -8.0% 63% 53% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover151.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 53% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 44% -20.4%
15% -24.8% 34% -28.1%
20% -32.2% 27% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$23 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$1,935
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses355 / 206
Est. fees paid−$217
Open positions7
Markets (closed)561 / 568
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day151.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 561 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 53¢ 53¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 76¢ 76¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 68¢ 100¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+46%)
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Leo Raquillet 46¢ 46¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Manoj Dhamne Manas 47¢ 55¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Xiaodi You 21¢ 24¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Carole Monnet 34¢ 72¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+110%)
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 46¢ 68¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+47%)
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Martyna Kubka 70¢ 98¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+39%)
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Cameron Norrie 32¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Martina Trevisan 35¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $29 +$1 +5%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $28 +$2 +8%
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Jun 16 $28 +$2 +8%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $23 +$1 +4%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $26 +$3 +12%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $27 −$3 -12%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $19 −$11 -58%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $16 +$3 +21%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $41 $0 -1%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $31 −$1 -4%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $34 −$4 -11%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $38 +$3 +7%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $29 +$1 +4%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $73 +$2 +3%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $27 +$3 +11%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $36 −$3 -7%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 16 $16 +$4 +22%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $26 $0 +1%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $42 −$6 -14%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $41 −$25 -62%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $19 +$1 +6%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $19 +$11 +62%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $6 +$1 +26%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $18 +$1 +5%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $53 −$1 -2%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $113 +$6 +5%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $26 +$2 +8%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $57 −$13 -23%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $31 −$4 -14%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $13 −$1 -8%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $15 +$5 +35%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $27 $0 +1%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $12 +$2 +14%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $41 +$7 +18%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $13 −$3 -23%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $64 +$4 +6%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +122%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $14 +$6 +48%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $29 +$1 +5%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $11 +$4 +36%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $17 −$4 -22%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Manoj Dhamne Manas 43¢ $2 0m
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Manoj Dhamne Manas 43¢ $3 0m
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Xiaodi You 20¢ $1 1m
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Xiaodi You 20¢ $0 1m
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Manoj Dhamne Manas 54¢ $2 1m
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Manoj Dhamne Manas 54¢ $3 1m
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Xiaodi You 21¢ $4 4m
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Leo Raquillet 46¢ $14 4m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 32¢ $2 5m
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Martina Trevisan 35¢ $2 5m
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 76¢ $23 6m
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei BUY Aliona Falei 23¢ $1 14m
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei BUY Aliona Falei 27¢ $4 15m
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei BUY Aliona Falei 27¢ $1 15m
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei BUY Aliona Falei 27¢ $0 15m
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei BUY Martyna Kubka 70¢ $21 16m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 50¢ $2 19m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 50¢ $1 19m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 50¢ $2 19m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 50¢ $1 19m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 50¢ $3 20m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 50¢ $3 20m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 46¢ $5 23m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 46¢ $3 24m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 46¢ $3 24m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 46¢ $4 24m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 46¢ $4 24m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 46¢ $4 24m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 46¢ $4 24m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 50¢ $15 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.34 · official $144.34 (match) · 3500 history records