Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x787e…cd5e world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 348d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$8
world 19% +$8
other 13% −$14
economics 5% $0
sports 4% +$4
finance 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.1% -11.4% 29% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 12 -13.2% -21.5% 25% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 29 -6.7% -15.6% 41% 3% -9.8%
all 37 -5.5% -14.5% 32% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 3% -9.8%
10% -22.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -30.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

348d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 25
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage348d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $25 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $109 +$2 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $68 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $106 −$11 -10%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $78 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $81 −$4 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $82 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $93 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $83 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $91 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 25 $22 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $123 −$12 -10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $61 −$5 -8%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 20 $24 −$9 -35%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $595 +$1 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 02 $301 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $36 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $530 +$1 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $671 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $216 +$4 +2%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $725 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Mar 30 $65 +$1 +2%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 30 $18 −$1 -8%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? Mar 30 $114 +$25 +22%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? Jul 06 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 06 $216 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 06 $229 $0 -0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jul 06 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 2? Jul 06 $244 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 06 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $66 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $3 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $6 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $10 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $2 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $2 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $2 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $25 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $34 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $33 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $68 43h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $68 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $22 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $77 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $77 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $5 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $77 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $77 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $15 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $59 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $81 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $72 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.40 · official $65.79 (match) · 117 history records