Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
78 0x787f…d40c sports 571 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,859 (-1%) realized −$1,838 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%312W / 254L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$1,908est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2,021now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,997
7 days−$4,736
14 days+$1,783
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$2,857
other 3% −$1,002
politics 0% +$11
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -28.5% -35.3% 46% 42% -24.2%
≤30d 191 -7.8% -16.6% 52% 48% -9.6%
≤90d 383 -8.6% -17.3% 53% 50% -9.8%
all 566 -8.0% -16.7% 55% 47% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 47% -10.8%
10% -24.7% 40% -19.4%
15% -32.0% 31% -27.1%
20% -38.6% 23% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$228 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$2,021
Realized−$1,838
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses312 / 254
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$1,908
Open positions5
Markets (closed)566 / 571
History coverage134d
Avg bet$317
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 566 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Dynamo Esports 67¢ 66¢ $1,544 $1,533 −$12 (-1%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 42¢ 40¢ $268 $252 −$16 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage SPARTA 45¢ 50¢ $88 $97 +$9 (+10%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Yakult Brothers 43¢ 42¢ $77 $75 −$3 (-3%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Yakult Brothers 43¢ 44¢ $64 $65 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 133 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $99 +$75 +76%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 +22%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $52 −$51 -99%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $421 +$90 +21%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,223 −$1,204 -98%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 16 $340 −$33 -10%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 16 $11 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $1,893 −$1,867 -99%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 16 $411 +$97 +24%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots Jun 15 $69 −$68 -98%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ shots Jun 15 $87 −$85 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $76 +$19 +26%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,023 +$248 +24%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 15 $995 −$191 -19%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $816 +$731 +90%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Du Jun 15 $23 +$7 +29%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $14 +$6 +42%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,732 +$933 +34%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $530 −$525 -99%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $55 −$54 -97%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $201 −$196 -98%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $336 −$332 -99%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,268 +$872 +38%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,855 +$985 +53%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $150 −$146 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,245 +$567 +46%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,812 −$1,793 -99%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $66 −$64 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $222 −$101 -46%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,245 −$1,234 -99%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $135 +$73 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,636 +$973 +60%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $382 +$218 +57%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 11 $1,288 −$1,266 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 11 $329 +$111 +34%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $169 −$166 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $1,920 −$1,712 -89%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $421 +$18 +4%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $148 −$144 -97%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $179 −$178 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY Dynamo Esports 67¢ $520 46m
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY Dynamo Esports 67¢ $520 48m
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY Dynamo Esports 67¢ $520 48m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 41¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 41¢ $8 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 41¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 45¢ $22 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 47¢ $40 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 47¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner SELL Bebop 49¢ $1 2h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) SELL SPARTA 48¢ $1 2h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) BUY SPARTA 38¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner BUY Bebop 45¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 43¢ $19 5h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 42¢ $26 5h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 42¢ $45 5h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 43¢ $9 5h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 43¢ $9 5h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 43¢ $24 6h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 42¢ $183 6h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 43¢ $9 6h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 43¢ $22 6h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 43¢ $24 6h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 43¢ $24 6h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 43¢ $13 6h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 43¢ $11 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 56¢ $99 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $52 10h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 82¢ $421 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 45¢ $13 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,020.80 · official $2,020.80 (match) · 1823 history records