Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:39:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x7885…1173
sports · 249 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,233 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,065 · open −$167
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,264
Realized−$1,065
Unrealized−$167
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses128 / 143
Est. fees paid−$180
Open positions20
Markets (closed)271 / 249
History coverage2d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day1779.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 20 History 271 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,065
7 days−$1,065
14 days−$1,065
30 days−$1,065
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 34¢ 66¢ $185 $359 +$174 (+94%)
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Mattia Bellucci 47¢ 34¢ $323 $236 −$87 (-27%)
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 60¢ 100¢ $123 $206 +$83 (+68%)
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jiri Lehecka 78¢ 100¢ $75 $97 +$21 (+28%)
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jack Pinnington Jones 56¢ 50¢ $53 $48 −$5 (-10%)
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Dane Sweeny 46¢ 100¢ $21 $46 +$24 (+115%)
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Johan Alexander Rodriguez 53¢ 100¢ $19 $36 +$17 (+88%)
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 59¢ 100¢ $16 $27 +$11 (+70%)
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo Celine Naef 88¢ 100¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+13%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 50¢ 62¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+24%)
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti Lucia Bronzetti 62¢ 74¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+20%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Canada 98¢ 98¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Francesco Forti 66¢ 64¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-3%)
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur Felix Balshaw 68¢ 68¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 51¢ 38¢ $18 $14 −$5 (-26%)
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Filippo Romano 58¢ 50¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet Oliver Tarvet 84¢ 91¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+9%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 49¢ 48¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti Nuria Brancaccio 30¢ 26¢ $9 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? No 55¢ 55¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran Guido Justo 83¢ 86¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Andrea Guerrieri 41¢ 36¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 51¢ 54¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur Clement Tabur 27¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
San Marino vs. Bangladesh: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Hong Kong SAR leading at halftime? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Sumter: Malaika Rapolu vs Maria Sholokhova Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Alex Molcan Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar vs. El Salvador end in a draw? Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Gibraltar leading at halftime? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Cagla Buyukakcay vs Eva Vedder Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Cattolica: Samuele Pieri vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Moldova vs. Bulgaria: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. Chile: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Caserta: Francesca Pace vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Albania vs. Luxembourg: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Jordan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Mexico vs. Serbia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $366 −$163 -44%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $357 −$21 -6%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $25 +$8 +31%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $220 −$70 -32%
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 12 $15 +$5 +34%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $52 +$8 +15%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $58 −$38 -66%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $34 +$6 +18%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $105 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% −$691
other 15% −$413
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Oliver Tarvet 95¢ $6 0m
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri BUY Francesco Forti 66¢ $5 3m
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) BUY Canada 98¢ $16 3m
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran BUY Guido Justo 83¢ $5 4m
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran BUY Guido Justo 83¢ $1 4m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 51¢ $4 6m
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri BUY Francesco Forti 63¢ $3 7m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 53¢ $1 12m
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Oliver Tarvet 76¢ $5 12m
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Tristan Schoolkate 25¢ $2 12m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 60¢ $2 13m
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Oliver Tarvet 73¢ $1 14m
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur BUY Felix Balshaw 64¢ $5 15m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 47¢ $3 15m
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Nuria Brancaccio 21¢ $3 17m
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri BUY Francesco Forti 70¢ $2 17m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 66¢ $3 17m
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 32¢ $8 19m
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri BUY Francesco Forti 70¢ $2 19m
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri BUY Francesco Forti 70¢ $1 19m
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri BUY Francesco Forti 70¢ $1 20m
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri BUY Andrea Guerrieri 31¢ $3 20m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 69¢ $1 20m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 69¢ $1 20m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 69¢ $1 21m
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 33¢ $1 21m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 48¢ $19 21m
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 49¢ $4 21m
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur BUY Felix Balshaw 70¢ $1 23m
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Nuria Brancaccio 36¢ $7 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 271 +12.6% +1.9% 47% 38% -14.4%
≤30d 271 +12.6% +1.9% 47% 38% -14.4%
≤90d 271 +12.6% +1.9% 47% 38% -14.4%
all 271 +12.6% +1.9% 47% 38% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1779.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.9% 38% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -7.8% 29% -22.6%
15% -16.7% 23% -30.1%
20% -24.9% 16% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,263.68 · official $1,255.16 (match) · 3500 history records