Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:34:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
78 0x7887…2cf0 crypto 626 markets active 2h ago coverage 256d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 256d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,145 (+0%) realized +$3,910 · open +$235
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%609W / 8L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$2,204per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21,748now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 256d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$10,275
other 0% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 124 -1.2% -10.6% 98% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 303 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 0% -9.1%
all 617 +3.5% -6.4% 99% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 0% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 0% -17.8%
15% -23.5% 0% -25.7%
20% -31.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$2,997) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$779 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$21,748
Realized+$3,910
Unrealized+$235
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses609 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)617 / 626
History coverage256d ⚠
Avg bet$2,204
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 617 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $6,458 $6,523 +$65 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,996 $3,998 +$2 (+0%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $3,566 $3,633 +$67 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $3,417 $3,454 +$38 (+1%)
Will XRP reach $2.20 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $3,214 $3,268 +$54 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $403 $408 +$6 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $276 $276 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $180 $183 +$4 (+2%)
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Jun 24 $1,409 +$78 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $3,541 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $4,462 +$29 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,641 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? Jun 22 $470 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $3,992 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 22? Jun 22 $2,994 +$6 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 in June? Jun 22 $465 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 22 $931 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $337 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 21? Jun 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $2,992 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 20? Jun 20 $480 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $578 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 19? Jun 19 $998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $863 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $3,497 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $2,421 +$26 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,735 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,516 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $4,423 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 17? Jun 17 $49 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $996 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,596 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5,101 +$5 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,004 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $381 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $259 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $4,916 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,789 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $3,638 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,694 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $831 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $3,379 +$21 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,497 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5,992 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $4,073 +$6 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $276 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $132 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $259 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $219 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $290 5h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $294 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $381 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $165 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $217 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $146 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $289 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $1,897 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $999 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $3,541 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $169 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $1,192 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $3,101 33h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $470 43h
Will Solana reach $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $348 2d
Will Solana reach $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $27 2d
Will Solana reach $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Solana reach $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $29 2d
Will Solana reach $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $16 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $111 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $213 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $107 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,328 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,072 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $594 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $998 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,747.94 · official $21,747.94 (match) · 3500 history records