Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:42:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
78 0x788e…92c1 crypto 1997 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$31 (+1%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate70%1260W / 548L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day72.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$80
14 days+$168
30 days+$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 305 +20.1% +8.7% 39% 39% +13.1%
≤30d 1808 +8.8% -1.6% 70% 45% -0.1%
≤90d 1808 +8.8% -1.6% 70% 45% -0.1%
all 1808 +8.8% -1.6% 70% 45% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 45% -0.1%
10% ← realistic here -11.0% 28% -9.7%
15% -19.6% 18% -18.4%
20% -27.5% 14% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses1260 / 548
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1808 / 1997
History coverage28d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day72.0
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1808 Trades
no open positions (499 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$9 +841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.94 · official $2.94 (match) · 3327 history records