Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
78 0x7895…e806 crypto 720 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 128d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$253 (-5%) realized −$250 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate58%420W / 298L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$228
sports 7% +$42
other 3% −$62
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +10.7% +0.1% 59% 53% -12.3%
≤30d 17 +10.7% +0.1% 59% 53% -12.3%
≤90d 17 +10.7% +0.1% 59% 53% -12.3%
all 718 -1.5% -10.9% 58% 40% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 40% -13.6%
10% -19.4% 30% -21.9%
15% -27.2% 22% -29.5%
20% -34.3% 17% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$250
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses420 / 298
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)718 / 720
History coverage128d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 718 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners Over 72¢ 74¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners Over 47¢ 44¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 28 $67 +$25 +38%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 28 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 −$15 -75%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 28 $37 −$33 -89%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 28 $43 +$19 +44%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $26 +$24 +96%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $20 +$23 +112%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $9 +$1 +11%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $25 +$6 +26%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $31 −$20 -64%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$17 +165%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +3%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $36 +$19 +52%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $31 −$27 -86%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 −$18 -90%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 27 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Feb 27 $5 $0 -2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 27 $1 $0 -8%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 27 $1 $0 -17%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Rhode Island Rams vs. St. Bonaventure Bonnies Feb 27 $1 $0 +36%
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $2 $0 +16%
Atalanta BC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score Feb 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Unio Feb 25 $2 +$1 +37%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: Both Teams to Score Feb 25 $5 $0 +0%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to Score Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24? Feb 25 $3 −$2 -53%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 24 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Feb 24 $1 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Feb 24 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Feb 24 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Feb 24 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 24 $1 $0 +45%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 24 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Feb 24 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Feb 24 $2 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Feb 24 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Feb 24 $1 $0 +22%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Feb 24 $2 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Feb 24 $1 $0 +20%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Feb 24 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Feb 24 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 72¢ $47 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 47¢ $8 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 47¢ $42 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 10h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 79¢ $50 11h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 57¢ $3 11h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 57¢ $1 11h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 57¢ $3 11h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 57¢ $5 12h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 50¢ $56 12h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 4.5 Corners SELL Over 8¢ $4 12h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 73¢ $37 12h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 59¢ $6 12h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 4.5 Corners SELL Under 99¢ $62 12h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $50 13h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $43 13h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 68¢ $18 14h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 68¢ $25 14h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $9 15h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 7¢ $11 15h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY No 79¢ $25 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 24h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 30h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 30h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 32h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 32h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 36h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 36h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $36 45h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.71 · official $93.71 (match) · 3500 history records