Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:55:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x789a…1dda crypto 1091 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,732 (-15%) realized −$4,123 · open −$609
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate66%691W / 352L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day51.1pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,605now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 51d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 26% −$710
other 20% −$303
sports 17% −$398
world 16% +$1,021
politics 7% −$455
culture 7% −$378
tech 4% −$63
finance 1% +$82
economics 1% $0
weather 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -6.5% -15.4% 72% 47% -18.3%
≤30d 492 -3.4% -12.6% 78% 39% -13.0%
≤90d 1043 -9.7% -18.3% 66% 36% -11.3%
all 1043 -9.7% -18.3% 66% 36% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 36% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 18% -19.8%
15% -33.3% 9% -27.5%
20% -39.8% 7% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$18 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$1,605
Realized−$4,123
Unrealized−$609
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses691 / 352
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions57
Markets (closed)1043 / 1091
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day51.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 57 History 1043 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? Yes 40¢ 74¢ $75 $139 +$65 (+87%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? No 72¢ 87¢ $74 $91 +$16 (+22%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 40¢ 44¢ $75 $83 +$8 (+11%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 89¢ 94¢ $75 $78 +$4 (+5%)
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $74 $74 +$0 (+0%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 29¢ 84¢ $25 $73 +$48 (+192%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? No 53¢ 93¢ $40 $70 +$30 (+76%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? Yes 20¢ 2¢ $677 $67 −$610 (-90%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 15¢ 18¢ $45 $55 +$10 (+23%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $45 $55 +$10 (+22%)
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs GamerLegion 96¢ 94¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Game Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (+1.5) GamerLegion 96¢ 85¢ $45 $39 −$5 (-12%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 55¢ 44¢ $45 $36 −$9 (-19%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 86¢ 72¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 23¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? No 93¢ 99¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+6%)
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No 86¢ 89¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 76¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+3%)
Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+4%)
Tucker Carlson federally charged? No 97¢ 99¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Viktor Orbán by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$15 +29%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Jun 20 $75 +$10 +14%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $23 +$2 +10%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $22 +$1 +5%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $134 −$134 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$12 +23%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? Jun 19 $23 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Jun 19 $45 −$13 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$12 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$16 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$12 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$10 +20%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 17 $46 $0 +1%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 17 $46 $0 +1%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $76 +$46 +60%
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 16 $46 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $23 $0 +2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $22 +$2 +10%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th Jun 16 $23 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 99¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $50 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 3h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 99¢ $30 4h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? SELL No 99¢ $85 4h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $23 6h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? BUY No 92¢ $9 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY No 95¢ $22 12h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $25 13h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $23 13h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 98¢ $23 15h
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $23 15h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $76 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 16h
Game Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (+1.5) BUY GamerLegion 96¢ $45 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $50 18h
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $50 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $50 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? SELL No 100¢ $23 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $50 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $50 27h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? SELL No 40¢ $33 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,605.33 · official $1,601.21 (match) · 3500 history records