Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:52:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
78 0x789f…2e8a sports 150 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,650 (-15%) realized −$5,650 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate61%92W / 58L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$192est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$397
7 days−$2,831
14 days−$3,720
30 days−$3,765
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$1,725
other 26% −$3,227
world 1% −$521
crypto 0% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +43.3% +29.6% 61% 48% -28.4%
≤30d 59 +19.8% +8.4% 63% 54% -26.7%
≤90d 104 +1.4% -8.3% 60% 51% -23.0%
all 150 +0.3% -9.3% 61% 54% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 54% -23.0%
10% -18.0% 37% -30.4%
15% -25.9% 26% -37.1%
20% -33.2% 21% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$237 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,650
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses92 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$192
Open positions0
Markets (closed)150 / 150
History coverage120d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 150 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $535 +$232 +43%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $100 +$17 +17%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $112 +$104 +93%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $301 +$44 +14%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $120 −$19 -16%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $835 +$586 +70%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $504 +$100 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $503 −$500 -99%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $1,001 −$276 -28%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $100 +$15 +14%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $302 +$93 +31%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $375 +$91 +24%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $213 +$162 +76%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $528 −$521 -99%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $403 +$124 +31%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $545 −$534 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,002 −$1,000 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $301 +$25 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $222 +$97 +44%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $884 +$28 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $88 −$87 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,032 +$853 +83%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $451 −$251 -56%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$190 +1845%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $502 −$495 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,086 −$1,080 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $137 +$44 +32%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $304 +$213 +70%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $132 +$92 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $482 −$480 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $202 +$72 +36%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $198 +$216 +109%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $203 −$200 -99%
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce Jun 07 $89 +$77 +87%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $205 +$30 +14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $704 −$697 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $101 −$99 -98%
CB Murcia vs. Barcelona Jun 02 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $241 +$58 +24%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings Jun 02 $121 +$19 +16%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $80 +$10 +12%
Virtus Bologna vs. Reyer Venezia Jun 01 $7 +$2 +32%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $302 +$60 +20%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $333 +$171 +51%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $203 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $767 16m
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $535 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 85¢ $100 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 98¢ $1 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $112 4h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Alexander Zverev 87¢ $301 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 21h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $31 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 61¢ $20 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $835 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 29h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 83¢ $504 31h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 100¢ $500 31h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Hubert Hurkacz 42¢ $225 31h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 92¢ $501 32h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 87¢ $100 34h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 76¢ $302 35h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $61 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $375 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $213 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $528 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $545 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,002 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel SELL Diane Parry 100¢ $53 3d
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 76¢ $403 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Diane Parry 94¢ $50 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $222 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 97¢ $884 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $88 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 274 history records