Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:52:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78a0…928b crypto 425 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$41 (-2%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%257W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$27
14 days−$66
30 days−$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -22.0% -29.4% 50% 50% -25.8%
≤30d 389 -9.0% -17.7% 58% 58% -15.5%
≤90d 425 -4.6% -13.7% 60% 60% -13.2%
all 425 -4.6% -13.7% 60% 60% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 60% -13.2%
10% -21.9% 59% -21.5%
15% -29.5% 48% -29.1%
20% -36.4% 27% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses257 / 168
Open positions0
Markets (closed)425 / 425
History coverage60d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 425 Trades
no open positions (84 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$6 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$4 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$4 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$3 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 836 history records