Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:14:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78a1…03c9 world 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate35%33W / 60L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$16
14 days+$19
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$35
sports 30% −$6
other 15% −$9
economics 12% $0
finance 1% $0
politics 1% −$3
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 28 +0.6% -9.0% 39% 4% -8.6%
≤90d 44 +0.2% -9.3% 32% 2% -9.4%
all 93 -2.5% -11.8% 35% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 1% -9.5%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses33 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage469d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 70¢ 76¢ $112 $121 +$9 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $109 +$3 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 20 $101 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $209 +$14 +7%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -11%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $190 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $113 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $97 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $98 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $98 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $98 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $70 +$3 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $95 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $529 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $395 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $104 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 -7%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $105 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $269 +$5 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $93 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $200 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $234 −$4 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $105 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $82 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $85 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $84 +$5 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $73 +$12 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $49 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $79 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 19 $88 −$9 -10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $90 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $88 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $176 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $981 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $1,078 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $391 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $1,078 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 25 $253 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $981 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $78 −$2 -3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $1,084 −$2 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $1,508 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Feb 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Feb 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $112 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $89 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $15 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $101 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $8 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $3 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $2 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $111 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $5 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $8 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $89 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $102 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $113 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $113 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $7 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $7 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $112 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $107 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $98 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $98 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $15 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $82 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $97 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $98 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.80 · official $120.80 (match) · 341 history records