Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:15:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78a3…c2d4 other 266 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 254L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$29
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$40
sports 25% −$21
politics 7% −$5
crypto 7% −$6
economics 6% −$6
culture 6% −$7
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 265 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 254
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)265 / 266
History coverage138d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $158 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $875 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $736 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $317 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $711 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $206 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $125 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $376 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $115 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $703 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $287 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $895 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $204 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $64 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $811 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $66 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $272 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $661 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $148 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $143 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $280 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $350 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $170 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $210 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,052 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $631 $0 +0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $288 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $337 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $69 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $230 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $335 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 8h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 9h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $61 11h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $61 12h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 21h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 23h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 24h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 26h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 27h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 28h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 31h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 33h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $61 37h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $61 39h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $61 40h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $62 42h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 3d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.46 · official $60.46 (match) · 1432 history records