Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:02:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78a3…75ec crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$230 (-50%) realized −$230 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%4W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day50.0pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$204
other 6% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-54.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -49.4% -54.2% 12% 12% -56.2%
≤30d 33 -49.4% -54.2% 12% 12% -56.2%
≤90d 33 -49.4% -54.2% 12% 12% -56.2%
all 33 -49.4% -54.2% 12% 12% -56.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.2% 12% -56.2%
10% ← realistic here -58.6% 12% -60.4%
15% -62.6% 9% -64.2%
20% -66.2% 9% -67.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$13 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses4 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$8 -81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$10 -66%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$21 -82%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$33 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$24 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$24 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$8 -78%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$16 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$51 +318%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$16 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$65 +294%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$27 +535%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$15 -66%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $10 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $5 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $15 54m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $15 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $4 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $25 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $25 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $17 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $67 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $6 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $7 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $15 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records