Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:48:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
78 0x78a5…fcc7 crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$346 (+8%) realized +$346 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate78%42W / 12L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$265
other 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +5.4% -4.7% 78% 43% -3.6%
≤30d 54 +5.4% -4.7% 78% 43% -3.6%
≤90d 54 +5.4% -4.7% 78% 43% -3.6%
all 54 +5.4% -4.7% 78% 43% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 43% -3.6%
10% -13.8% 22% -12.8%
15% -22.1% 19% -21.3%
20% -29.7% 15% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$16 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.5 per $1 lost it wins $2.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$346
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses42 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage7d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $126 −$18 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $125 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $376 +$16 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $76 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $301 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $126 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $127 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $213 −$32 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $228 +$55 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $178 +$47 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $24 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$18 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 08 $25 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records