Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:32:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78a6…cfaa sports 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$331 (-28%) realized −$419 · open +$88
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%11W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$452now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$121
other 35% +$53
world 10% −$102
crypto 10% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -25.8% -32.8% 33% 30% -52.8%
≤30d 33 -25.8% -32.8% 33% 30% -52.8%
≤90d 33 -25.8% -32.8% 33% 30% -52.8%
all 33 -25.8% -32.8% 33% 30% -52.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 30% -52.8%
10% -39.3% 21% -57.3%
15% -45.1% 18% -61.4%
20% -50.5% 18% -65.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$20 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$452
Realized−$419
Unrealized+$88
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses11 / 22
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions8
Markets (closed)33 / 45
History coverage4d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 78¢ $264 $357 +$93 (+35%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $43 −$41 -94%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $19 −$18 -95%
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? Jun 16 $21 −$2 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +172%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $31 $0 -2%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 16 $121 +$26 +21%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +85%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$19 -96%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$15 -76%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $56 −$17 -30%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 +$2 +35%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $12 +$26 +213%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +119%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 +$8 +350%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $267 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY 24¢ $10 3h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY 32¢ $10 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 54¢ $51 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 53¢ $16 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 17h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 13¢ $5 17h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria $0 17h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 48¢ $20 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes $1 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 29h
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $19 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $16 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $10 32h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $3 32h
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 34h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $42 34h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? BUY Yes $5 34h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 34h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 34h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 34h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $451.83 · official $451.90 (match) · 82 history records