Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:53:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78aa…2d2d crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (461 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$62 (+0%) realized +$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%35W / 28L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$641per market
Trades / day461.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$10,199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (461 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +49.2% +35.0% 56% 52% +13.4%
≤30d 63 +49.2% +35.0% 56% 52% +13.4%
≤90d 63 +49.2% +35.0% 56% 52% +13.4%
all 63 +49.2% +35.0% 56% 52% +13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover461.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +35.0% 52% +13.4%
10% +22.1% 49% +2.6%
15% ← realistic here +10.3% 46% -7.3%
20% -0.5% 44% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$710) neutral
Persistence
early +89% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
36.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$629 vs −$422 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses35 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage5d
Avg bet$641
Trades / day461.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $1,527 +$1,005 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $4,470 +$5,130 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $4,533 +$4,958 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $1,094 +$1,218 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $1,044 −$1,037 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $852 +$48 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $106 −$102 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $211 −$201 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $552 −$531 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $2,418 −$2,327 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $845 −$822 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $710 −$592 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $9,815 +$2,946 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 27 $990 −$990 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $1,053 −$1,049 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $430 +$570 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 27 $37 +$46 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 27 $764 +$2,135 +279%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $352 +$48 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 27 $846 −$838 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $4,224 −$2,701 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $906 +$1,091 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 27 $24 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 27 $543 +$847 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $570 +$930 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 27 $237 +$363 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $88 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 27 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $114 +$86 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $109 −$104 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $284 −$280 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 24 $40 −$13 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$8 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 24 $14 +$32 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $7 +$21 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$39 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$49 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $27 +$72 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $13 +$20 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$20 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $17 +$28 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $14 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $144 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $219 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $211 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $195 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $178 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $167 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2363 history records