Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x78ae…7412
politics · 60 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$15 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open −$29
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$517
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions72
Markets (closed)3 / 60
History coverage20d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day169.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 72 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $20 $30 +$10 (+50%)
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $25 $20 −$5 (-19%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $15 $18 +$4 (+25%)
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $20 $14 −$6 (-28%)
Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $20 −$6 -29%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $20 −$3 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 39% +$2
economics 36% −$3
other 15% −$35
culture 6% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 4m
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 18m
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 37m
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No $12 2h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $9 2h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No $0 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No $1 3h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No $0 3h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No $7 3h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -13.7% -21.9% 0% 0% -21.9%
≤90d 3 -13.7% -21.9% 0% 0% -21.9%
all 3 -13.7% -21.9% 0% 0% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover169.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 0% -21.9%
10% ← realistic here -29.4% 0% -29.4%
15% -36.2% 0% -36.2%
20% -42.5% 0% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $516.90 · official $516.83 (match) · 3500 history records