trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jun 04 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 04 | $20 | −$6 | -29% |
| Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 03 | $20 | −$3 | -12% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | -13.7% | -21.9% | 0% | 0% | -21.9% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -13.7% | -21.9% | 0% | 0% | -21.9% |
| all | 3 | -13.7% | -21.9% | 0% | 0% | -21.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -21.9% | 0% | -21.9% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -29.4% | 0% | -29.4% |
| 15% | -36.2% | 0% | -36.2% |
| 20% | -42.5% | 0% | -42.5% |