Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:29:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78ae…143a other 302 markets active 1h ago coverage 557d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$435 (-1%) realized +$191 · open −$626
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate47%122W / 138L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$138est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$3,389now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$235
14 days+$1,812
30 days+$2,463
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$89
world 20% −$195
politics 17% +$751
sports 14% −$1,260
culture 3% +$132
crypto 0% −$222
finance 0% +$60
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -20.5% -28.1% 38% 38% -34.2%
≤30d 37 +13.9% +3.1% 51% 49% +38.3%
≤90d 111 -2.5% -11.8% 43% 40% -5.3%
all 260 -8.4% -17.1% 47% 36% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 36% -9.4%
10% -25.1% 30% -18.1%
15% -32.3% 28% -26.0%
20% -38.9% 26% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$147 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

557d coverage
Net worth$3,389
Realized+$191
Unrealized−$626
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses122 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$138
Open positions42
Markets (closed)260 / 302
History coverage557d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 60¢ $504 $469 −$36 (-7%)
Will Haissem Hassan score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 85¢ $230 $347 +$117 (+51%)
Will David Raya win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 91¢ $344 $344 +$0 (+0%)
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ goals Yes 21¢ 100¢ $54 $255 +$202 (+375%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $455 $228 −$228 (-50%)
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 30¢ $271 $183 −$87 (-32%)
Will Sadio Mané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $146 $143 −$4 (-2%)
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $141 $128 −$13 (-9%)
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 47¢ $142 $117 −$25 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $103 $106 +$4 (+3%)
Will Charles De Ketelaere score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 50¢ $94 $104 +$10 (+11%)
Will Marcel Sabitzer score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 46¢ $132 $102 −$30 (-22%)
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 69¢ $75 $80 +$5 (+6%)
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 42¢ $63 $56 −$8 (-12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $63 $54 −$10 (-15%)
Will Chris Wood score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 15¢ $158 $51 −$107 (-68%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $58 $51 −$6 (-11%)
Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $67 $49 −$19 (-28%)
Will Ricardo Pepi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 45¢ $29 $45 +$16 (+55%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $27 $42 +$16 (+58%)
Will Bruno Guimarães score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 74¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-7%)
Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals Yes 43¢ 14¢ $108 $34 −$74 (-69%)
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 64¢ $36 $32 −$4 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $137 +$84 +62%
Luka Modrić: 1+ goals Jun 23 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $16 +$8 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $117 +$266 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $219 −$215 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $170 −$168 -98%
Tomáš Souček: 1+ goals Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $297 +$209 +70%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $117 +$133 +114%
Chris Wood: 1+ goals Jun 15 $96 −$94 -98%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 15 $67 −$65 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $162 +$1,047 +648%
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $16 +$3 +21%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $126 +$128 +101%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $181 +$127 +70%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists Jun 14 $111 −$109 -98%
Leroy Sané: 1+ assists Jun 14 $111 −$109 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $96 −$94 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $234 +$66 +28%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $487 +$266 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $195 +$305 +156%
Will Folarin Balogun score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $31 +$19 +62%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $260 +$215 +83%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 08 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Gavi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $57 +$2 +3%
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $88 −$86 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 06 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 05 $54 −$54 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $537 +$932 +174%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $67 +$70 +104%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 03 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $99 +$201 +203%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $123 −$123 -100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5 May 25 $4 +$5 +108%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $196 −$196 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $246 +$107 +44%
Will Éder Militão be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squa May 18 $598 +$7 +1%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $125 +$125 +100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5 May 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2 +$7 +376%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 08 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $132 +$118 +89%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 06 $216 +$86 +40%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $312 +$84 +27%
Antoine Griezmann: Anytime Goalscorer May 05 $45 −$44 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 27¢ $113 1h
Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $109 1h
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $55 1h
Luka Modrić: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $21 25h
Luka Modrić: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $32 25h
Luka Modrić: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $2 25h
Luka Modrić: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $1 25h
Luka Modrić: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $0 25h
Luka Modrić: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $6 25h
Luka Modrić: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $15 25h
Luka Modrić: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $7 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 32¢ $80 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 24¢ $11 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 24¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $23 3d
Will Haissem Hassan score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $23 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $94 3d
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 3d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $2 3d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $9 3d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $6 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $219 4d
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 4d
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $74 4d
Will Bruno Fernandes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 5d
Will Chris Wood score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 5d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 21¢ $1 5d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 21¢ $1 5d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 21¢ $6 5d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 21¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,388.77 · official $3,388.89 (match) · 2644 history records