Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:37:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x78b0…9f1a
sports · 301 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$20,394 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$25,126 · open −$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14,115
Realized−$25,126
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses134 / 160
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$5,799
Open positions7
Markets (closed)294 / 301
History coverage51d
Avg bet$1,228
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 7 History 294 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,529
7 days+$3,514
14 days−$1,720
30 days−$15,487
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Over 48¢ 46¢ $3,500 $3,378 −$122 (-3%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Over 55¢ 57¢ $2,000 $2,083 +$83 (+4%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $2,000 $2,052 +$52 (+3%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Under 47¢ 48¢ $2,000 $2,028 +$28 (+1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $2,000 $1,981 −$19 (-1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $2,000 $1,974 −$26 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Under 56¢ 55¢ $630 $619 −$11 (-2%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $1,600 $0 −$1,600 (-100%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $1,649 $0 −$1,649 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Under 54¢ 0¢ $324 $0 −$324 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $700 $0 −$700 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Under 46¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $816 $0 −$816 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Under 46¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5 Under 56¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $1,351 $0 −$1,351 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $700 $0 −$700 (-100%)
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $1,734 $0 −$1,734 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $1,163 $0 −$1,163 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $1,488 $0 −$1,488 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Under 48¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Over 45¢ 0¢ $1,030 $0 −$1,030 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Under 54¢ 0¢ $750 $0 −$750 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Under 55¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $633 $0 −$633 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2,028 −$132 -6%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $2,029 +$1,892 +93%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2,030 +$1,970 +97%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $2,029 +$1,817 +90%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $2,026 +$1,483 +73%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $2,032 −$2,000 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 13 $2,031 +$2,119 +104%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $218 +$173 +79%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $3,548 +$2,933 +83%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1,827 +$1,773 +97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $1,826 −$1,800 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $3,754 −$3,700 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $4,058 −$266 -6%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $101 +$71 +70%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $101 +$80 +79%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $101 +$84 +83%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $2,029 +$1,892 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $103 +$731 +712%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $6,313 +$2,298 +36%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2,025 +$1,837 +91%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $1,826 −$1,000 -55%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $2,031 +$2,009 +99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $2,536 +$2,267 +89%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $2,014 −$1,986 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $3,598 −$3,545 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $3,436 −$3,385 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $3,554 −$3,500 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $2,011 +$1,838 +91%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $4,056 +$1,603 +40%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 09 $1,914 −$1,884 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $5,078 −$5,000 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $2,029 +$1,817 +90%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $2,342 +$1,799 +77%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $2,032 +$2,224 +109%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 07 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $1,523 +$1,480 +97%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 06 $760 +$609 +80%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $2,660 −$2,622 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $508 −$500 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $507 −$500 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $507 −$500 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $3,036 +$2,830 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $424 +$380 +90%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 05 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 05 $3,043 −$3,000 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 Jun 05 $1,017 −$104 -10%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 05 $1,298 −$1,281 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $2,028 −$2,000 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$25,141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 56¢ $638 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3,555 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 51¢ $1,896 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2,028 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2,032 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2,030 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $2,027 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2,028 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2,028 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2,029 20h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2,030 20h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2,029 20h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2,032 20h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2,026 20h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 48¢ $2,031 36h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $218 38h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,827 38h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1,826 38h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2,029 39h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,725 39h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3,548 39h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 50¢ $3,724 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 52¢ $0 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 52¢ $53 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 52¢ $8 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 52¢ $7 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2,029 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2,029 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1,014 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1,017 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +31.4% +18.9% 59% 59% -5.6%
≤30d 158 -3.7% -12.9% 46% 46% -16.5%
≤90d 294 -6.4% -15.3% 46% 46% -16.0%
all 294 -6.4% -15.3% 46% 46% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 46% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 46% -24.1%
15% -30.8% 46% -31.4%
20% -37.6% 45% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,114.95 · official $14,114.95 (match) · 590 history records