Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:56:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x78b1…9025
crypto · 49 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$4 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses22 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)45 / 49
History coverage30d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 4 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +51%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$6 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +52%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -66%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$1 -59%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 62% −$1
other 31% +$9
sports 4% −$2
tech 1% −$2
world 1% −$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -8.5% -17.2% 49% 47% -6.7%
≤30d 45 -8.5% -17.2% 49% 47% -6.7%
≤90d 45 -8.5% -17.2% 49% 47% -6.7%
all 45 -8.5% -17.2% 49% 47% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 47% -6.7%
10% -25.1% 40% -15.7%
15% -32.3% 31% -23.8%
20% -39.0% 18% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.42 · official $28.42 (match) · 194 history records