Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:07:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78b2…efc3 crypto 63 markets active 3h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$176 (-12%) realized −$163 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate43%26W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day65.8pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$286
other 13% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -36.0% -42.1% 43% 25% -34.7%
≤30d 61 -36.0% -42.1% 43% 25% -34.7%
≤90d 61 -36.0% -42.1% 43% 25% -34.7%
all 61 -36.0% -42.1% 43% 25% -34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.1% 25% -34.7%
10% ← realistic here -47.6% 18% -41.0%
15% -52.7% 15% -46.7%
20% -57.3% 10% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$163
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses26 / 35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage3d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day65.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 19¢ 4¢ $16 $3 −$13 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $78 −$77 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $35 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $37 −$24 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $35 −$9 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $33 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$7 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$11 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $49 −$34 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $34 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $24 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$9 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $61 −$30 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$11 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$15 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$47 +180%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $78 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $13 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $12 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $27 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 195 history records