Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78b4…10f3 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$102 (-12%) realized −$109 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$79
sports 6% −$27
crypto 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -13.5% -21.7% 50% 50% -25.0%
≤30d 8 -13.5% -21.7% 50% 50% -25.0%
≤90d 8 -13.5% -21.7% 50% 50% -25.0%
all 8 -13.5% -21.7% 50% 50% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 50% -25.0%
10% -29.2% 50% -32.2%
15% -36.0% 50% -38.7%
20% -42.3% 25% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$96 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage6d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $87 $94 +$7 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$27 -52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $75 +$39 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $288 −$287 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $142 +$144 +101%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $87 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $24 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $75 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $288 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $142 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.73 · official $93.73 (match) · 14 history records