Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:03:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x78ba…f235
crypto · 605 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$144 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$144 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses434 / 171
Open positions0
Markets (closed)605 / 605
History coverage3d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day932.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 605 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$368
7 days−$144
14 days−$144
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $64 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $43 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $131 −$91 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $209 −$144 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $313 −$144 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $313 +$105 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $208 +$111 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $103 −$13 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $314 +$97 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $208 +$38 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $105 +$58 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $104 +$49 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $129 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $41 −$35 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $75 +$15 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$17 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $90 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $463 +$70 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $46 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $76 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $35 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $36 +$14 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $44 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $48 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $35 +$15 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $38 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $47 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $38 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $23 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $48 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $7 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $7 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $7 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $7 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $7 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $7 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $12 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $7 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $25 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $12 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 605 -6.8% -15.7% 72% 28% -10.0%
≤30d 605 -6.8% -15.7% 72% 28% -10.0%
≤90d 605 -6.8% -15.7% 72% 28% -10.0%
all 605 -6.8% -15.7% 72% 28% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover932.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 28% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 15% -18.6%
15% -31.1% 9% -26.5%
20% -37.9% 6% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records