Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x78bc…2585
other · 385 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$22,720 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19,981 · open −$370
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,839
Realized−$19,981
Unrealized−$370
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses201 / 265
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions6
Markets (closed)466 / 385
History coverage228d
Avg bet$809
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%
Chart Positions 6 History 466 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$619
7 days+$38
14 days+$784
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 60¢ 60¢ $1,200 $1,210 +$10 (+1%)
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes 32¢ 24¢ $778 $592 −$186 (-24%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $490 $465 −$25 (-5%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 33¢ 34¢ $330 $335 +$5 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $146 $224 +$77 (+53%)
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $264 $13 −$251 (-95%)
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Shnaider 40¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Will Aldrich Potgieter win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Keith Mitchell win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Brandt Snedeker win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Ricky Castillo win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Christiaan Bezuidenhout win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Andrew Putnam win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Frances Tiafoe 29¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Taylor Pendrith win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $430 $0 −$430 (-100%)
Will Marco Penge win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Sam Stevens win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Daniel Berger win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Michael Thorbjornsen win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aldrich Potgieter win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Keith Mitchell win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Brandt Snedeker win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ricky Castillo win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Christiaan Bezuidenhout win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Andrew Putnam win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Taylor Pendrith win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Marco Penge win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Sam Stevens win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Daniel Berger win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Michael Thorbjornsen win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Sungjae Im win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will J.T. Poston win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ryo Hisatsune win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Austin Smotherman win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Harry Hall win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will John Parry win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will John Keefer win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Lucas Glover win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bernd Wiesberger win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jordan Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Patrick Rodgers win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Rasmus Hojgaard win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Harris English win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Angel Ayora win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Brian Harman win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Max Homa win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Stewart Cink win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Pierceson Coody win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 41% −$21,502
world 28% +$4,304
crypto 16% −$2,290
sports 8% +$3,108
politics 5% −$2,503
tech 1% +$244
finance 0% −$945
economics 0% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $1,200 9m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $18 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $394 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $696 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $38 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $835 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $222 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $255 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $640 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 7¢ $70 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $85 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $401 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $154 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $180 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $87 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $410 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $256 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $315 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $149 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $754 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $1 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $213 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $200 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -91.3% -92.2% 3% 2% -9.2%
≤30d 108 -81.8% -83.5% 9% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 222 -62.7% -66.3% 18% 14% -31.7%
all 466 -11.0% -19.5% 43% 32% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 32% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 27% -23.8%
15% -34.2% 21% -31.2%
20% -40.7% 16% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,839.36 · official $2,839.36 (match) · 3500 history records