Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
78 0x78bd…300d world 216 markets active 1h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,847 (+6%) realized +$2,652 · open +$195
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate57%119W / 89L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$3,214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$117
7 days+$220
14 days+$266
30 days+$704
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$403
other 17% −$43
politics 15% +$892
finance 9% +$1,487
culture 4% +$364
tech 2% −$527
weather 2% −$65
sports 2% +$58
economics 1% +$260
crypto 1% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 70% 50% -6.8%
≤30d 30 +8.5% -1.8% 63% 53% -4.4%
≤90d 74 +3.6% -6.3% 61% 45% -1.7%
all 208 -1.5% -10.9% 57% 40% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 40% -4.5%
10% -19.4% 30% -13.6%
15% -27.2% 24% -22.0%
20% -34.3% 18% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$64 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$3,214
Realized+$2,652
Unrealized+$195
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses119 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)208 / 216
History coverage306d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 62¢ 56¢ $1,890 $1,726 −$165 (-9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 87¢ 96¢ $435 $482 +$48 (+11%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 58¢ 88¢ $249 $381 +$131 (+53%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 57¢ 92¢ $182 $294 +$112 (+62%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of June 15 2026? No 84¢ 94¢ $218 $244 +$26 (+12%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? No 26¢ 57¢ $34 $73 +$40 (+118%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? No 54¢ 90¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+67%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $926 −$75 -8%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 16 $1,069 +$21 +2%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 15 $119 −$119 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $319 +$56 +18%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $340 +$170 +50%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $201 +$23 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $995 +$176 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $2,014 −$195 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $480 +$23 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $759 +$141 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $263 −$59 -22%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 07 $192 +$105 +55%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 06 $24 −$17 -70%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 06 $3 −$2 -80%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 05 $112 +$32 +29%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $18 −$13 -73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $90 −$90 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $192 −$20 -10%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $35 +$38 +108%
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $22 +$19 +85%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? May 30 $96 +$76 +79%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $2,527 +$290 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $504 +$96 +19%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $126 −$119 -95%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 28 $532 +$21 +4%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31? May 27 $50 +$110 +219%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $96 +$36 +37%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the May 24 $147 +$40 +27%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? May 23 $17 +$12 +75%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 20 $150 −$69 -46%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $490 +$110 +22%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 09 $70 +$5 +7%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 06 $154 +$8 +5%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $34 −$27 -80%
Will Resni.ca (Res) be part of the next Government of Slovenia? May 05 $39 +$10 +26%
Exact Score: Manchester United FC 3 - 2 Liverpool FC? May 03 $4 +$1 +29%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b May 01 $78 +$11 +15%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026? May 01 $120 +$80 +67%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 01 $490 +$95 +19%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month? Apr 29 $51 +$70 +139%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 28 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week? Apr 26 $20 −$1 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 24 $468 −$109 -23%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $2,311 +$13 +1%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? Apr 24 $32 −$18 -55%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $222 +$130 +59%
Will The Left (Levica) be part of the next Government of Slovenia? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 7, 2026? Apr 12 $355 +$22 +6%
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $56 −$56 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 37¢ $37 46m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 37¢ $37 47m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $84 51m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 63¢ $444 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 47¢ $94 17h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 47¢ $0 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 17h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 86¢ $90 19h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 84¢ $10 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 87¢ $348 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 87¢ $333 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 81¢ $310 21h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 84¢ $210 22h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $21 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,860 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 35h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 35h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $406 36h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $29 36h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $16 38h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 39h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 39h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? BUY No 54¢ $4 43h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 95¢ $74 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 95¢ $150 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 85¢ $201 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $922 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,213.55 · official $3,213.86 (match) · 1086 history records