Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:23:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78bd…2821 other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 105L
Whale WR11%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$17
politics 22% −$8
sports 7% −$21
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
culture 2% −$1
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 113 -6.0% -15.0% 7% 4% -9.7%
all 113 -6.0% -15.0% 7% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 4% -9.7%
10% -23.1% 4% -18.3%
15% -30.6% 4% -26.2%
20% -37.4% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 11% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)113 / 113
History coverage90d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 113 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $276 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 01 $99 $0 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 30 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $54 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $282 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $241 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 17 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 17 $464 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $246 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 14 $240 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $231 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $248 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $249 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $251 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $411 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $245 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $225 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $226 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $245 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 29 $250 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $463 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $247 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $480 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $702 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 19 $244 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $529 $0 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $249 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $472 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 5h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 23h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 26h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 6d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 6d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 11d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 11d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 12d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 13d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 14d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 15d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $44 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $44 16d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 17d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $46 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $46 18d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 23d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 24d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 25d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 329 history records