Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:44:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
78 0x78bf…6ebb sports 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,248 (+6%) realized +$1,322 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%34W / 40L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$171est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$468now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days+$2
14 days−$402
30 days+$1,419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$1,573
world 30% −$322
crypto 15% +$429
politics 8% −$177
other 3% +$161
tech 2% −$386
finance 1% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +19.8% +8.4% 45% 36% -9.5%
≤30d 72 +5.5% -4.6% 46% 38% -2.0%
≤90d 74 +4.0% -5.9% 46% 36% -2.0%
all 74 +4.0% -5.9% 46% 36% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 36% -2.0%
10% -14.9% 32% -11.4%
15% -23.1% 32% -20.0%
20% -30.7% 31% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$114 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$468
Realized+$1,322
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses34 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$171
Open positions3
Markets (closed)74 / 79
History coverage40d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $362 $325 −$37 (-10%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $70 $73 +$3 (+4%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $109 $69 −$40 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $87 −$58 -66%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $244 +$203 +83%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $405 +$2 +0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $102 +$96 +94%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $3,645 −$303 -8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 19 $10 −$5 -53%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $21 −$6 -27%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $129 −$2 -2%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $8 +$22 +276%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $101 −$99 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $748 +$153 +20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $221 −$181 -82%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $220 −$205 -93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 12 $51 +$139 +272%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $203 −$100 -49%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $154 −$152 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $345 +$469 +136%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 08 $17 +$4 +21%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1,580 $0 +0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 07 $144 +$150 +104%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 06 $410 −$102 -25%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $811 −$326 -40%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $202 −$88 -44%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $153 −$150 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $609 +$576 +95%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 04 $147 −$65 -44%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $122 +$235 +192%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $304 +$195 +64%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $102 −$63 -62%
Centurion 2: Robin Bertrand vs Giles Hussey Jun 04 $161 −$158 -98%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 04 $194 −$191 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $305 +$505 +165%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $1,010 −$10 -1%
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Jun 03 $304 −$150 -49%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $304 +$235 +77%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $24 −$24 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Chandogs vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ameri Jun 02 $98 +$157 +161%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $412 +$911 +221%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2,506 −$443 -18%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $216 −$216 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $102 −$86 -84%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $202 +$105 +52%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $20 +$47 +232%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $102 −$82 -81%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $410 +$528 +129%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 31 $51 −$10 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers SELL San Diego Padres 10¢ $29 29m
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 29¢ $87 53m
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 53¢ $203 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 59¢ $22 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Toronto Tempo 36¢ $35 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 18¢ $19 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 57¢ $407 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $405 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $198 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $42 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 5h
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $70 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $52 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 6h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $33 17h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $69 18h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $99 21h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 21h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 21h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 21h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 21h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? SELL Yes 36¢ $16 22h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY Yes 46¢ $21 22h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 66¢ $303 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $467.71 · official $467.71 (match) · 357 history records