Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:35:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
78 0x78c4…7f3e other 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$18
politics 32% −$15
sports 13% +$37
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 92 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 121 -1.6% -10.9% 8% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 4% -9.5%
10% -19.5% 4% -18.2%
15% -27.2% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×11.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage128d
Avg bet$311
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $209 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $803 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $228 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $295 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $241 $0 +0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $250 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 05 $247 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $222 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $185 −$1 -1%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $268 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $545 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $273 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $239 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $208 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $266 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $251 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $257 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $876 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $261 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 26 $302 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 24 $242 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $287 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $266 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $292 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $291 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $234 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $279 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $255 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $262 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 17 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $307 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $231 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 17 $299 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $731 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $287 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $276 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $255 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $259 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $273 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $215 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 5d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 9d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $209 13d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $209 21d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $275 21d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $276 26d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 26d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 27d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $295 29d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $295 32d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $45 35d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $241 39d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $241 42d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $250 43d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $250 43d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $247 44d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $247 44d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $234 45d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $235 45d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $261 45d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $261 45d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $222 45d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $222 46d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $184 46d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $185 47d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $45 47d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $268 47d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $268 47d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $265 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.99 · official $29.99 (match) · 353 history records