Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:43:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78c5…fb0f sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21,936 (-18%) realized −$21,995 · open +$59
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%10W / 18L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,143per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1,601est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$928now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$429
7 days−$429
14 days−$3,957
30 days−$3,957
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$23,213
other 12% +$302
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -32.7% -39.1% 0% 0% -39.1%
≤30d 3 -77.6% -79.7% 0% 0% -83.5%
≤90d 28 -26.3% -33.3% 36% 36% -27.1%
all 28 -26.3% -33.3% 36% 36% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.3% 36% -27.1%
10% ← realistic here -39.7% 36% -34.1%
15% -45.5% 36% -40.5%
20% -50.9% 36% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$5,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4,631 vs −$3,849 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$928
Realized−$21,995
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses10 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1,601
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage59d
Avg bet$4,143
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Baltimore Orioles 41¢ 44¢ $869 $928 +$59 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 26 $1,313 −$429 -33%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 19 $2,584 −$2,547 -99%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $995 −$981 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 May 06 $1,919 −$1,890 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals May 06 $1,015 +$907 +89%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $4,035 −$3,963 -98%
Istanbul: Anastasia Gasanova vs Hanyu Guo May 05 $5,066 −$5,000 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 05 $5,068 +$4,024 +79%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $4,972 −$4,909 -99%
Canadiens vs. Lightning May 03 $2,036 −$2,000 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5 May 03 $4,052 +$2,968 +73%
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners May 03 $4,160 −$4,100 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins May 03 $4,495 +$3,710 +82%
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners May 02 $10,602 −$10,467 -99%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $5,077 −$5,000 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 May 02 $5,080 −$5,000 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 02 $10,129 +$7,397 +73%
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox May 01 $5,079 −$5,000 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $2,045 −$2,000 -98%
Stars vs. Wild May 01 $5,098 −$4,996 -98%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $5,085 −$5,000 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Apr 30 $5,078 +$5,328 +105%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 30 $5,066 +$3,888 +77%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers Apr 29 $5,067 −$5,000 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 29 $1,028 −$1,000 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $5,097 +$9,173 +180%
Spread: Oilers (-1.5) Apr 29 $3,054 +$4,506 +148%
Spread: Celtics (-10.5) Apr 29 $4,970 +$4,410 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 41¢ $884 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 39¢ $884 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 56¢ $1,313 25h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $5 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $2,579 7d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $995 8d
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,919 51d
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals SELL Minnesota Twins 100¢ $1,922 51d
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals BUY Minnesota Twins 52¢ $1,015 52d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY No 40¢ $981 52d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY No 39¢ $3,055 52d
Istanbul: Anastasia Gasanova vs Hanyu Guo BUY Hanyu Guo 56¢ $5,066 52d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 55¢ $5,068 53d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 57¢ $4,972 53d
Canadiens vs. Lightning BUY Lightning 40¢ $2,036 54d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5 SELL Under 100¢ $7,019 54d
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $4,160 54d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 57¢ $4,052 54d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Minnesota Twins 95¢ $8,205 54d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 51¢ $436 54d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 51¢ $4,059 54d
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $980 55d
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $1,519 55d
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $3,039 55d
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $5,064 55d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 49¢ $5,077 55d
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5,080 55d
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 100¢ $17,526 55d
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Houston Astros 47¢ $5,079 56d
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $10,129 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $928.00 · official $928.00 (match) · 51 history records