Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:22:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
78 0x78c9…0219 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate78%14W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$27
other 19% −$12
sports 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)+17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +29.9% +17.5% 78% 72% +5.6%
≤30d 18 +29.9% +17.5% 78% 72% +5.6%
≤90d 18 +29.9% +17.5% 78% 72% +5.6%
all 18 +29.9% +17.5% 78% 72% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.5% 72% +5.6%
10% +6.3% 61% -4.5%
15% -4.0% 61% -13.8%
20% -13.4% 56% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses14 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 55¢ $2 18h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 55¢ $2 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $14 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records