Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:27:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
78 0x78cd…6a61 crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%18W / 12L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$831per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,868
7 days−$1,303
14 days−$1,303
30 days+$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$4,378
other 46% −$4,527
crypto 5% −$282
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +5.3% -4.8% 64% 55% -15.1%
≤30d 18 -1.4% -10.8% 67% 44% -8.8%
≤90d 30 -13.0% -21.3% 60% 40% -11.1%
all 30 -13.0% -21.3% 60% 40% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 40% -11.1%
10% -28.8% 30% -19.6%
15% -35.7% 20% -27.4%
20% -42.0% 10% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$859) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$268 vs −$438 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses18 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage45d
Avg bet$831
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,010 +$489 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6,068 −$3,808 -63%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $4,878 +$1,184 +24%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $476 −$28 -6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3,575 −$78 -2%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,523 +$373 +24%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,165 +$357 +31%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $859 +$306 +36%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $782 +$77 +10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $504 +$279 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $456 −$455 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,954 +$1,644 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 24 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 23 $65 −$65 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 23 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 21 $59 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 21 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 20 $49 +$9 +18%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $448 −$438 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 04 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 04 $87 −$85 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 04 $136 −$49 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 04 $136 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 04 $122 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 03 $68 +$62 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 03 $60 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 03 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 03 $27 +$13 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,500 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $995 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 33¢ $1,265 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $6,062 4h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $224 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $5 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $49 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $748 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $228 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $13 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $63 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $39 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $65 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $20 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $14 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $231 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $13 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $10 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $5 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $462 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $49 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $5 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $499 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $49 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $45 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $24 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $3,202 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $4,878 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records