Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:35:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78d0…6110 other 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$169 (+4%) realized +$351 · open −$182
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%26W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$396
7 days+$45
14 days+$199
30 days+$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$193
sports 39% +$371
world 5% −$187
crypto 3% +$5
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -11.8% -20.2% 37% 35% -7.9%
≤30d 52 +1.0% -8.6% 40% 38% -4.2%
≤90d 67 -7.5% -16.3% 39% 34% -5.0%
all 67 -7.5% -16.3% 39% 34% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 34% -5.0%
10% -24.3% 34% -14.1%
15% -31.6% 31% -22.4%
20% -38.3% 30% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$36 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$351
Unrealized−$182
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses26 / 41
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions4
Markets (closed)67 / 71
History coverage61d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Yes 0¢ 22¢ $0 $48 +$48 (+0%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 53¢ 10¢ $140 $25 −$115 (-82%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 48¢ 4¢ $120 $9 −$111 (-92%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $51 +$45 +88%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $102 +$100 +99%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 −$73 -71%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $82 +$164 +200%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$4 -37%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $51 +$68 +134%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$21 +105%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $90 −$88 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$142 +70%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $44 −$43 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 +$239 +388%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $253 −$250 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -11%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $183 −$183 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$36 +234%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $22 +$6 +26%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$46 +226%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $112 +$110 +99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$105 -53%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$182 +90%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 −$2 -9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$15 +246%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $53 +$205 +385%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $218 −$179 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 23¢ $46 5m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 8m
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $95 36m
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 48m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $51 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $91 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $122 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $202 18h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $102 19h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $29 19h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 20h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $71 20h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $245 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 21h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 22h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 22h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 22h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 22h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 23h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 23h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 23h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 23h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 23h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 66¢ $51 26h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 40h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $51 43h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.74 · official $90.29 · 164 history records