Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:06:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78d2…b978 other 151 markets active 1d ago coverage 693d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$755 (-13%) realized −$748 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate17%24W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$74
14 days−$310
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$972
sports 34% +$1,070
world 9% −$516
politics 4% −$185
crypto 4% −$195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-42.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -78.1% -80.2% 8% 8% -75.1%
≤30d 66 -25.8% -32.9% 12% 11% -19.9%
≤90d 66 -25.8% -32.9% 12% 11% -19.9%
all 144 -36.9% -42.9% 17% 15% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.9% 15% -23.9%
10% -48.4% 15% -31.2%
15% -53.4% 15% -37.9%
20% -57.9% 14% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$32 · ×3.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

693d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$748
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses24 / 120
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 151
History coverage693d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $11 −$11 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $9 −$9 -98%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $16 −$15 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $9 −$8 -97%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 21 $9 −$5 -57%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $8 +$2 +30%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $15 −$1 -10%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $14 −$14 -97%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $51 +$4 +8%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $40 −$39 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Spread: Jun 18 $127 −$32 -25%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $24 +$141 +596%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $30 −$6 -21%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $25 −$8 -34%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$24 -97%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $40 −$39 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $71 −$69 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $177 −$174 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $136 +$162 +119%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $80 −$78 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$18 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 −$24 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $72 +$317 +442%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $11 27h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Will Cabo Ver BUY 3¢ $10 27h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 14¢ $9 3d
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 5¢ $6 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 5¢ $16 3d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? AND Will Colombia vs. DR Congo BUY 5¢ $14 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 6d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 4¢ $9 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 2¢ $9 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $14 6d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 8d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 7¢ $14 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $54 8d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 19¢ $40 9d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 8¢ $10 9d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 12¢ $21 9d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND Will Me BUY 22¢ $33 9d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Spread: SELL 22¢ $52 9d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $21 9d
South Africa leading at halftime? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 9d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Spread: BUY 24¢ $4 9d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Spread: BUY 26¢ $62 9d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Spread: SELL 17¢ $42 9d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Spread: BUY 24¢ $60 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.25 · official $2.25 (match) · 279 history records