Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:19:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78d6…b555 crypto 170 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (247 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$273 (+9%) realized +$273 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%93W / 76L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day247.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$67
other 2% −$4
sports 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (247 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 169 +3.2% -6.6% 55% 52% -7.4%
≤30d 169 +3.2% -6.6% 55% 52% -7.4%
≤90d 169 +3.2% -6.6% 55% 52% -7.4%
all 169 +3.2% -6.6% 55% 52% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover247.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 52% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 47% -16.3%
15% -23.7% 41% -24.4%
20% -31.2% 29% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$273
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses93 / 76
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)169 / 170
History coverage2d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day247.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 74¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$2 -40%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$3 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$1 +39%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $18 −$15 -82%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$12 -92%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 28 $20 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $28 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $22 +$7 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$6 -50%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$22 -83%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10AM ET Jun 28 $95 −$3 -3%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $24 −$21 -88%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $32 +$3 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $17 −$15 -86%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $17 +$10 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $13 +$5 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$6 -21%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$39 +157%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $17 −$15 -89%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $24 +$16 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$2 -24%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$10 +85%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $39 +$7 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $38 −$10 -27%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 28 $17 +$7 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $19 +$7 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$14 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$5 +49%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$10 -48%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$10 -66%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $27 +$13 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $23 −$20 -86%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$12 -90%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $13 +$10 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$10 +184%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$2 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $43 −$14 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $17 −$4 -27%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$11 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 28m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $3 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $18 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 36m
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs SELL Sharks 66¢ $21 37m
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Sharks 64¢ $20 41m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $28 44m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.06 · official $2.32 (match) · 593 history records