Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:36:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x78dd…668d
other · 67 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$56 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$41 · open −$45
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$182
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses30 / 22
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions15
Markets (closed)52 / 67
History coverage101d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 15 History 52 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$136
7 days−$110
14 days−$99
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 24¢ 24¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Japan 77¢ 76¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 70¢ 84¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 53¢ 42¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
OKX IPO in 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Yes 19¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? Yes 25¢ 10¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 65¢ 10¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-85%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 27¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Yes 25¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Yes 46¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 5? Yes 13¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? No $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 24? Yes 24¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Yes 32¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -79%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 13 $20 +$3 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $20 +$9 +47%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 03 $11 $0 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $20 +$10 +49%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 27 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 10 $10 +$3 +27%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 10 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Solana reach $90 in May? May 07 $10 +$3 +25%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 05 $10 +$6 +62%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 24 $5 $0 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Apr 23 $10 +$5 +54%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $10 +$5 +49%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $20 +$8 +40%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 10? Apr 13 $5 +$8 +151%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $10 +$7 +70%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $10 +$9 +93%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Apr 08 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 07 $5 $0 -0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 07 $100 +$32 +32%
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? Apr 02 $5 +$12 +245%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 01 $20 +$19 +96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 01 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 20, 2026? Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 25 $10 +$4 +43%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 24? Mar 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $5 +$4 +78%
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Mar 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 23 $10 +$4 +42%
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 20 $5 $0 +8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 end of March? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 19 $20 +$35 +175%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 32% +$42
sports 26% −$140
other 22% −$11
politics 10% +$16
crypto 5% +$7
finance 3% +$10
tech 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 24¢ $72 34m
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 77¢ $30 34m
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 68¢ $101 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 45¢ $20 2h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 14h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 15h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 42¢ $11 17h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 49¢ $23 26h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $29 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2d
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 24¢ $11 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $12 18d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 41¢ $20 18d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 88¢ $11 35d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $24 35d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 37d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 37d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 37d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $10 37d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $10 37d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $10 37d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 67¢ $10 37d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 67¢ $10 37d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $15 38d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 78¢ $10 38d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 39d
Will Solana reach $90 in May? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 39d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $10 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -21.8% -29.3% 43% 43% -61.4%
≤30d 12 -1.2% -10.6% 67% 58% -42.1%
≤90d 50 -2.2% -11.5% 60% 54% -13.6%
all 52 -6.0% -14.9% 58% 52% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 52% -14.8%
10% -23.1% 44% -23.0%
15% -30.5% 33% -30.4%
20% -37.3% 21% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.85 · official $179.61 · 213 history records