Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:05:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
78 0x78df…e004 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$72 (+1%) realized +$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%15W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$664per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% +$6
other 33% +$6
sports 16% +$59
politics 8% +$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 15 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 15 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses15 / 0
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage97d
Avg bet$664
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $206 $206 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $926 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $923 +$3 +0%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $856 +$57 +7%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $7.50 in May? Jun 01 $863 +$1 +0%
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the top global Netflix show this May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will "La Brea: Season 3" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 20 $107 $0 +0%
Will "Lord of the Flies" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 20 $373 +$2 +0%
Will "Funny AF with Kevin Hart" be the top global Netflix show this we May 20 $374 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on May 13? May 14 $859 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 06 $858 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 14? Apr 15 $857 +$1 +0%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $856 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on April 8? Apr 09 $854 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 4? Apr 05 $854 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of March? Mar 31 $853 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $207 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 100¢ $926 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $923 17d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $870 21d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $43 21d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $856 21d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $7.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $863 35d
Will "La Brea: Season 3" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $107 42d
Will "Lord of the Flies" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $373 42d
Will "Funny AF with Kevin Hart" be the top global Netflix show this we BUY No 100¢ $374 42d
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the top global Netflix show this BUY No 100¢ $5 42d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $859 49d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $858 62d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $857 77d
Thunder vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 100¢ $856 79d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $854 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $854 88d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of March? BUY Yes 100¢ $853 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.40 · official $206.40 (match) · 33 history records