Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:04:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x78e3…d9ff
crypto · 236 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$50 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$40 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses128 / 106
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)234 / 236
History coverage90d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 234 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$20 +130%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$3 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $47 +$14 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 23 $9 −$4 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 23 $6 +$6 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 23 $25 +$28 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 23 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Apr 23 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 12 $15 +$15 +98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 12 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 03 $1 +$2 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 03 $6 +$8 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 02 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Apr 02 $18 +$12 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 31 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 31 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 31 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 30 $12 +$11 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4AM ET Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Mar 28 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 28 $12 +$8 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 28 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 27 $23 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 27 $24 +$25 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10AM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 27 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 27 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 27 $30 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 27 $6 +$5 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 88% +$13
sports 11% −$54
other 0% −$10
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 33¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 33¢ $4 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 9¢ $1 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $61 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $25 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +43.5% +29.8% 60% 60% +18.1%
≤30d 5 +43.5% +29.8% 60% 60% +18.1%
≤90d 234 -2.7% -12.0% 55% 52% -11.0%
all 234 -2.7% -12.0% 55% 52% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 52% -11.0%
10% -20.4% 50% -19.5%
15% -28.1% 44% -27.3%
20% -35.1% 35% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 801 history records