Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:46:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78e5…e9b5 sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$823 (-38%) realized −$480 · open −$343
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%6W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$482
finance 21% −$192
crypto 11% −$192
other 10% −$205
world 5% −$110
tech 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-58.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 20 -85.6% -87.0% 10% 10% -79.5%
all 25 -53.6% -58.0% 24% 24% -53.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.0% 24% -53.2%
10% -62.1% 24% -57.6%
15% -65.7% 20% -61.7%
20% -69.1% 20% -65.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$63 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$480
Unrealized−$343
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses6 / 19
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage99d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 73¢ $360 $17 −$343 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 16 above $640? Apr 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 16 above $630? Apr 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 03 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 03 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 16 above $650? Apr 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference? Apr 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? Apr 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $390-$395 on the final day of trading of th Apr 03 $35 −$35 -100%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Al Apr 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $395-$400 on the final day of trading of th Apr 03 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Apr 03 $212 −$212 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 03 $70 −$70 -100%
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $80 −$80 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 03 $209 −$202 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 03 $32 +$20 +61%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 03 $209 +$48 +23%
Will Paper Rex win Masters Santiago 2026? Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Jensen Huang say "Anthropic" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote? Mar 18 $25 +$60 +241%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 14 $183 +$143 +78%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 4 Winner Mar 14 $50 +$29 +57%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 3 Winner Mar 14 $53 +$50 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 73¢ $377 2h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $32 2h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha SELL Team Heretics $7 79d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha BUY Team Heretics 69¢ $209 79d
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Al BUY Gen.G Esports 38¢ $100 79d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 81¢ $122 84d
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $80 95d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 82¢ $87 95d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY Yes 28¢ $35 95d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY Yes 46¢ $50 95d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? BUY Yes 64¢ $75 95d
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference? BUY No 18¢ $30 95d
Will Jensen Huang say "Anthropic" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote? BUY Yes 29¢ $25 97d
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 16 above $640? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 97d
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 16 above $650? BUY Yes 17¢ $25 97d
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 16 above $630? BUY Yes 45¢ $50 97d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 62¢ $32 97d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $390-$395 on the final day of trading of th BUY Yes 14¢ $35 97d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $395-$400 on the final day of trading of th BUY Yes 12¢ $35 97d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? BUY No 50¢ $212 98d
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs SELL NRG $8 98d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $50 98d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $35 98d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $35 98d
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? BUY Yes $20 98d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 98d
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 4 Winner SELL Paper Rex 96¢ $79 98d
Will Paper Rex win Masters Santiago 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $50 98d
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 4 Winner BUY Paper Rex 61¢ $50 98d
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs BUY NRG 22¢ $20 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.14 · official $17.14 (match) · 54 history records