Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:49:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
78 0x78e5…2b0d sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,373 (+65%) realized +$2,969 · open −$596
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +133% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +87% what you keep after slip
Net edge+87%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$612per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$103
other 33% +$1,882
world 17% −$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+110.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +132.7% +110.5% 67% 67% +110.0%
≤30d 3 +132.7% +110.5% 67% 67% +110.0%
≤90d 3 +132.7% +110.5% 67% 67% +110.0%
all 3 +132.7% +110.5% 67% 67% +110.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +110.5% 67% +110.0%
10% ← realistic here +90.4% 67% +89.9%
15% +72.0% 67% +71.5%
20% +55.1% 67% +54.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +132% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +133% · $-wt +132% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,290 vs −$144 · ×8.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17.91 per $1 lost it wins $17.91
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,204
Realized+$2,969
Unrealized−$596
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$612
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 40¢ $600 $608 +$8 (+1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 70¢ $600 $596 −$4 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $600 $1 −$599 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $622 −$144 -23%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $610 +$695 +114%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $614 +$1,886 +307%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,203.84 · official $1,203.84 (match) · 17 history records