Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:47:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
78 0x78e7…2c77 world 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$3,871 (+89%) realized +$3,943 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +135% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +104% what you keep after slip
Net edge+104%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$625per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,226
7 days+$2,226
14 days+$2,226
30 days+$3,949
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% +$3,877
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+112.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +111.4% +91.3% 100% 100% +60.2%
≤30d 5 +134.6% +112.2% 100% 100% +75.7%
≤90d 5 +134.6% +112.2% 100% 100% +75.7%
all 5 +134.6% +112.2% 100% 100% +75.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +112.2% 100% +75.7%
10% +91.9% 100% +58.9%
15% +73.4% 80% +43.6%
20% +56.4% 60% +29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +94% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +135% · $-wt +94% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$790 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$3,943
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage27d
Avg bet$625
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $155 $78 −$78 (-50%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $27 $33 +$6 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $534 +$1,420 +266%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,257 +$449 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1,100 +$357 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $1,049 +$1,149 +110%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 21 $250 +$573 +229%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $155 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 27¢ $534 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $535 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $569 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $154 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $415 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $188 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $100 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $2,198 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $1,303 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $756 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $800 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $823 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $249 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $250 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $500 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $1,000 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.50 · official $110.50 (match) · 20 history records