Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:37:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78e9…f4a9 politics 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%4W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% $0
world 29% −$6
crypto 15% $0
other 6% $0
economics 5% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 -26.5% -33.5% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 6 -11.3% -19.7% 0% 0% -12.7%
all 28 -3.8% -13.0% 14% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -10.5%
10% -21.3% 0% -19.1%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.9%
20% -35.9% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses4 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage294d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 27 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $42 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $35 −$5 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 06 $2 $0 -14%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 17 $8 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $26 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 14 $9 $0 +0%
Fed rate cut in 2025? Sep 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 09 $33 $0 +1%
Will PPP/C win the most seats in the 2025 Guyana National Assembly ele Sep 02 $2 −$1 -27%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $40 27m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $40 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 91¢ $34 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 91¢ $8 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 91¢ $42 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 71¢ $24 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 71¢ $6 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $1 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $34 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 90¢ $47 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 90¢ $47 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 31d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 31d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 31d
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 279d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 98¢ $27 279d
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 279d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 279d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 98¢ $27 279d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 279d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 97¢ $27 279d
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 279d
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 279d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 97¢ $27 280d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 280d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 280d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records