Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:48:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x78eb…5ddb
crypto · 314 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$77 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$77 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses151 / 163
Open positions0
Markets (closed)314 / 314
History coverage67d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 0 History 314 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$53
14 days−$54
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$76
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 -14.9% -23.0% 55% 55% -20.0%
≤30d 133 -12.4% -20.8% 56% 56% -19.4%
≤90d 314 -10.6% -19.2% 48% 40% -16.1%
all 314 -10.6% -19.2% 48% 40% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 40% -16.1%
10% -26.9% 31% -24.2%
15% -34.0% 24% -31.5%
20% -40.4% 18% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 747 history records