Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:55:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x78ed…ab3a
weather · 156 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$436 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$192 · open −$244
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$768
Realized−$192
Unrealized−$244
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses47 / 96
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)143 / 156
Avg bet$105
Trades / day67.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 13 History 143 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$276
7 days−$247
14 days−$239
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $210 $218 +$8 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Yes 77¢ 88¢ $131 $150 +$19 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $112 $109 −$2 (-2%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $49 $27 −$22 (-44%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $24 $21 −$4 (-15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $28 $9 −$18 (-67%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-87%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $118 $1 −$117 (-99%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? No 6¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $52 +$107 +206%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $149 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $146 −$146 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $115 +$90 +78%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $100 −$57 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $241 +$623 +259%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $103 −$82 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $186 −$186 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $222 −$222 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $101 −$98 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $604 +$176 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $720 +$282 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $64 −$47 -74%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$4 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $51 +$45 +88%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 10 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 9? Jun 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? Jun 10 $79 −$79 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $113 −$113 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $151 −$151 -100%
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $40 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $396 +$590 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $514 +$112 +22%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 09 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $84 −$25 -30%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $308 +$353 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $17 −$12 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $45 −$35 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $134 +$204 +152%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $100 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 5? Jun 08 $79 −$79 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 6? Jun 08 $59 −$59 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 79% +$244
world 8% −$432
politics 7% −$185
other 3% −$318
crypto 2% +$339
sports 1% −$40
tech 0% −$23
finance 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 29¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $75 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 83¢ $26 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $52 3h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 22¢ $12 3h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 22¢ $7 4h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 22¢ $7 4h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 22¢ $19 4h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 96¢ $134 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -38.7% -44.5% 28% 22% -12.5%
≤30d 143 -25.4% -32.5% 33% 28% -10.7%
≤90d 143 -25.4% -32.5% 33% 28% -10.7%
all 143 -25.4% -32.5% 33% 28% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover67.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.5% 28% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -39.0% 24% -19.2%
15% -44.9% 22% -27.0%
20% -50.3% 19% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $767.66 · official $767.03 (match) · 1255 history records