Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:18:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78ee…9a0e crypto 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (146 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$178 (+12%) realized +$178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%33W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day146.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (146 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -5.0% -14.1% 46% 44% -7.8%
≤30d 71 -5.0% -14.1% 46% 44% -7.8%
≤90d 71 -5.0% -14.1% 46% 44% -7.8%
all 71 -5.0% -14.1% 46% 44% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover146.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 44% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 44% -16.6%
15% -29.8% 39% -24.6%
20% -36.7% 35% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$15 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses33 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day146.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 26 $19 +$15 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $33 +$25 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 26 $37 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$10 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $19 +$15 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $37 −$19 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $19 +$21 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $19 +$6 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $34 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $56 +$14 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$25 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $34 −$8 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$27 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $48 −$15 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$19 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $17 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $59 +$42 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$10 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $19 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $35 −$15 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$12 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$20 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $29 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $42 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$10 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $12 +$48 +418%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$14 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$9 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $34 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $19 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $19 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $16 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $58 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $33 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $19 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $19 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $23 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $16 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $19 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $19 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records