Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:16:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78f0…d502 crypto 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$221 (-3%) realized −$209 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%36W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$142
7 days−$142
14 days−$142
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$921
sports 6% +$61
other 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +16.3% +5.2% 35% 35% -18.3%
≤30d 17 +16.3% +5.2% 35% 35% -18.3%
≤90d 96 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 34% -20.1%
all 96 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 34% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 34% -20.1%
10% -17.6% 30% -27.8%
15% -25.6% 25% -34.8%
20% -32.9% 23% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$53 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$209
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses36 / 60
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage43d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 38¢ $71 $59 −$12 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$37 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$138 +522%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $105 −$92 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$87 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $53 +$16 +30%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $152 +$174 +114%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$12 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$32 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$46 -44%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$58 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$91 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 08 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 08 $25 −$6 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 08 $172 −$148 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 08 $147 +$26 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 07 $131 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 07 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 07 $155 −$104 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 07 $104 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 07 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 07 $104 +$134 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 07 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 07 $104 +$149 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 07 $7 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 07 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 07 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 07 $206 −$97 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 07 $52 −$11 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 07 $52 +$39 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 07 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 07 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 07 $53 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 07 $105 +$297 +283%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 07 $52 −$23 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 07 $52 −$26 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 07 $51 +$26 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 07 $52 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 07 $68 −$30 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 07 $52 +$89 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 07 $104 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 07 $21 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 07 $52 +$59 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 07 $53 −$50 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $72 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $67 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $165 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $13 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $17 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 53¢ $0 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 55¢ $88 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $84 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $57 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $152 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $101 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $151 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.23 · official $62.31 · 195 history records