Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:49:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78f0…7bf4 crypto 318 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$287 (-4%) realized −$287 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%149W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$242
7 days+$173
14 days−$137
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$281
other 27% +$304
sports 18% −$420
world 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -25.0% -32.1% 46% 46% +9.4%
≤30d 58 -23.6% -30.9% 40% 40% -15.2%
≤90d 313 -2.5% -11.7% 48% 47% -15.0%
all 313 -2.5% -11.7% 48% 47% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 47% -15.0%
10% -20.2% 46% -23.1%
15% -27.9% 45% -30.5%
20% -35.0% 40% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$17 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$287
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses149 / 164
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)313 / 318
History coverage45d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 313 Trades
no open positions (158 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $83 +$51 +61%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$15 +15%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $300 +$143 +48%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $40 −$30 -76%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $237 +$102 +43%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 23 $21 +$29 +135%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $48 −$21 -42%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 +$9 +17%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $24 −$24 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 +$10 +60%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $19 +$17 +89%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $27 −$26 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$16 +54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$13 +38%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $29 +$31 +105%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $35 −$20 -57%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$4 +32%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 +$12 +38%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $56 −$55 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +236%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $36 −$36 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $107 −$106 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 +$97 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $138 −$137 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +57%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $29 −$29 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $67 +$33 +50%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $41 −$3 -7%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $61 +$41 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 60¢ $175 16m
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $108 42m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 80¢ $116 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $26 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 53¢ $26 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $57 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 39¢ $20 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 14¢ $21 9h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw BUY 2¢ $2 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $269 17h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 2¢ $1 17h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 9¢ $9 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $174 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $98 19h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 38¢ $39 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $91 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $247 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 52¢ $34 21h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 31¢ $28 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 22h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 22h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 16¢ $60 22h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 22h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $48 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 24h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $51 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $26 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $24 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $193.00 · 683 history records